1
1
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
The US tocks moved sharply lower over the course of the trading day on
Wednesday, extending the significant pullback seen in the previous session. With the
continued weakness on the day, the major averages fell to their lowest closing levels
in over a month. Dow and the Nasdaq tumbled by 1.9 percent and 1.6 percent to
26,079 and 7,785, respectively.
The UK stocks plunged on yesterday as global growth worries persisted and
investors waited for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's radical contemporary Brexit
proposal later in the day. The FTSE 100 slumped by 1.7 percent to 7,234.
On domestic front, Indian markets were closed yesterday on account of Gandhi
jayanti. On Tuesday, shares tumbled with benchmark indexes Sensex and Nifty
falling around 1 percent each, as investors fretted about the exposure of major
banks to NBFCs and realty sectors after the crisis in PMC Bank and Lakshmi Vilas
Bank. The benchmark BSE Sensex fell by 0.9 percent to 38,305.
News Analysis
Sept manufacturing PMI unchanged from August; MPC may cut rates further
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company
Rating
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Blue Star
Accumulate
795
867
9.0
ICICI Bank
Accumulate
425
490
15.4
Parag Milk Foods
Buy
156
306
96.6
Bata India
Accumulate
1,737
1,865
7.4
KEI Industries
Accumulate
515
612
18.9
More Top Picks on Pg4
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
-0.9
-362
38,305
Nifty
-1
-115
11,359
Mid Cap
-1.5
-218
13,886
Small Cap
-1.6
-212
12,959
Bankex
-1.6
-511
32,379
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
-1.9
-494
26,079
Nasdaq
-1.6
-123
7,785
FTSE
-1.7
-127
7,234
Nikkei
-0.8
-170
21,878
Hang Seng
-0.3
-88
25,954
Shanghai Com
0.1
3
2,932
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
655
387
Declines
1,834
1,467
Unchanged
140
87
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
2,900
NSE
46,352
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
FII
(747)
(3,503)
(2,50,886)
*MFs
590
7,877
45,428
Top Gainers
Price (
`
)
Chg (%)
RPOWER
3
15.5
NMDC
96
8.7
CONCOR
640
5.8
NH
235
5.3
BPCL
494
5.1
Top Losers
Price (
`
)
Chg (%)
RELCAPITAL
22
-9.0
NOCIL
102
-9.4
ZEEL
233
-12.2
DHFL
31
-19.9
SREINFRA
8
-14.5
As on Oct 01, 2019
2
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
News Analysis
Sept manufacturing PMI unchanged from August; MPC may cut
rates further
The manufacturing sector continued to tell a muted growth story in September. The
IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey showed that at 51.4, growth
in manufacturing activities was unchanged from August when it posted a 15-
month low.
In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below that
denotes contraction. The September reading is its lowest since May 2018.
On the prices front, input cost inflation moderated to one of the lowest rates seen
in over a decade. Subsequently, there was only a marginal rise in selling prices.
This may prompt the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) Monetary Policy Committee
(MPC) to cut rates.
Manufacturing growth was worse in the second quarter (Q2) of 2019-20 than that
in the first quarter. PMI stood at 51.8 in Q2 versus 52.2 in the previous quarter.
India’s economic growth has slumped for the fifth straight quarter to an over six-
year low of 5 per cent in the three months ended June, as consumer demand and
private investment slowed amid deteriorating global environment. Industrial sector,
which also comprises electricity and mining apart from manufacturing, constitutes
around 15-16 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.
Economic and Political News
Sept manufacturing PMI unchanged from August; MPC may cut rates further
Govt to auction 7 mineral blocks in Odisha from October 22-November 1
GST collection dips 19-month low at Rs 91,916 cr, reflects weak demand
Corporate News
Firms won't be allowed to adjust MAT credit if they opt for lower tax: CBDT
DLF settles Rs 8,700 crore amount payable to JV with Singapore-based GIC
Religare to sell entire stake in NBFC arm to TCG Advisory for Rs 330 cr
NCLAT sets aside insolvency plea of bauxite exporter Ashapura Minechem
Tata group investment in GMR Airports hits AAI regulatory hurdle
3
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Top Picks
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
Blue Star
7,658
795
867
9.0
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
ICICI Bank
2,74,242
425
490
15.4
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
KEI Industries
4,062
515
612
18.9
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Maruti Suzuki
2,04,924
6,784
8,552
26.1
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
Safari Industries
1,297
581
1,000
72.2
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
Parag Milk Foods
1,309
156
306
96.6
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank
6,83,025
1,249
1,310
4.9
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
M&M
69,196
557
724
30.1
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Amber Enterprises
2,846
905
1,003
10.8
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
Bata India
22,323
1,737
1,865
7.4
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores addition
and focus on women’s high growth segment and
margin improvement
4
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Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Continued...
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
Shriram Transport Finance
23,693
1,044
1,385
32.6
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
9,940
97
250
156.5
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
2,201
1,506
1,740
15.5
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
RBL Bank
12,918
300
540
79.9
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
level ROA (1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige
8,524
6,150
7,708
25.3
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a
single product company to offering an entire
gamut of home and kitchen appliances. We
are expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and
25% in PAT over FY2018-20. Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
5
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Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
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Fundamental Call
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
CCL Products
3,153
237
360
51.9
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
Nilkamal
1,811
1,214
2,178
79.5
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India Ltd
2,034
2,565
2,500
-2.5
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries
1,904
155
256
64.8
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Finance Holding
16,634
83
150
80.4
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,055
225
549
143.9
Strong brands and distribution network would
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at
an inexpensive valuation.
Music Broadcast Limited
1,014
37
95
159.2
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Inox Winds
723
33
120
268.1
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential growth
in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-20E. The
growth would be led by changing renewable
energy industry dynamics in favor of wind energy
segment viz. changes in auction regime from Feed-
In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse auction regime and
Government’s guidance for 10GW auction in FY19
and FY20 each.
Ashok Leyland
19,360
66
156
136.5
Considering the strong CV demand due to change
in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger pre-buying
activities), pick up in construction activities and no
significant impact on industry due to recent axle
load norms, we recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
Aditya Birla Capital
17,929
81
118
45.0
We expect financialisation of savings and
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
33,791
577
890
54.3
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the Indian
Pharmaceutical companies, is well placed to face
the challenging generic markets, given its focus on
achieving growth through productivity. Aurobindo
will report net revenue & net profit CAGR of ~13%
& ~8% resp. during FY2018-20E. Valuations are
cheap V/s its peers and own fair multiples of 17-
18x.
Yes Bank
8,161
32
NA
NA
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
GIC Housing
720
134
NA
NA
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
4
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 24 Sep, 2019
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
6.0
6.8
7.7
8.1
8.0
7.0
6.6
5.8
5.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
(%)
4.6
8.4
0.2
2.5
1.6
0.2
2.7
3.2
4.6
1.2
4.3
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-
19
Jun-19
Jul-19
(%)
3.7
3.4
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
(%)
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
5.4
5.15
4.00
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
(%)
5
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Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 24 Sep, 2019
0.3
2.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.8
1.4
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(%)
0.7
1.8
6.7
6.8
0.7
5.2
5.4
3.7
1.7
2.2
2.0
1.6
1.5
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(%)
9.1
4.0
19.1
10.2
14.6
14.8
17.0
15.2
12.5
16.0
12.2
14.3
13.2
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(x)
6
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Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
1,01,134
-0.7
4.2
31.9
Russia
Micex
2,740
0.0
2.8
16.8
India
Nifty
11,023
-0.9
-7.5
-5.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2,886
-1.6
-0.4
-1.5
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,406
-1.7
6.4
1.6
UK
FTSE
7,207
-5.0
0.6
-3.0
Japan
Nikkei
20,704
-3.8
0.5
-9.5
Germany
DAX
11,939
-2.1
1.8
-3.4
France
CAC
5,480
-0.7
0.2
1.4
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 30 August, 2019
7
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Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
8
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Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
9
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
October 03, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
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